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Analysis: Still hope for Miami
Remember some of those losses at the end of the 2013-14 regular season?
A 5-2 loss at home against Western Michigan. A 3-0 defeat at Cady Arena at the hands of St. Cloud State. A 5-2 beat down at Denver.
And who could forget that 9-2 shellacking in Grand Forks during which Miami surrendered eight goals in the first two periods.
Granted that team beat Denver in its regular season finale, but it had little chance to advance to the NCHC championship game after a miserable 12-19-3 showing in its first campaign in the then-newly formed league.
But it swept SCSU in its own building and came within a goal of winning the conference tournament.
The point is: Despite the mercurial showing thus far in 2015-16, anything can happen in the postseason, and Miami has a dramatic history in recent years.
Here’s the problem with that rah-rah theory: The RedHawks have yet to beat the Bulldogs this season.
UMD is 3-0-1 vs. Miami, outscoring it 14-4.
And unlike two years ago when SCSU was a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, the Bulldogs are a game over .500 and 13th in the PairWise, far from safe as an at-large team.
All that aside, Miami has a flare for the dramatic when it has it gets into nothing-to-lose mode.
When it made its championship game run, the RedHawks were playing miserable hockey entering the NCAAs and barely got into the field.
The point is: Despite the poor showing this weekend, there’s no reason to write off next weekend’s paramount series.
And there is hope that the RedHawks could still make it to Minneapolis and beyond.
Other thoughts…
– Andrew Schmit got beat 1-on-1 for the first UMD goal. Willie Corrin was able to skate around Schmit, put an initial shot on and grab his own rebound for the initial marker.
– Wow, what a beautiful tic-tac-toe goal by the Columbus line. Just amazing how quickly Jack Roslovic was able to re-direct the puck to Kiefer Sherwood, and how he was able to finish.
– Sophomore defenseman Louie Belpedio fired a pass up the ice that was intercepted at his own blue line, ultimately resulting in the go-ahead goal for UMD.
– Guess this comes down to being spoiled, but it’s tough to not have a playoff series on home ice, with that being practically a given the past decade. Would gladly trade the pre-paid season ticket refund, and some, to have Miami host another series.
Miami swept by Minn.-Duluth
After surging above .500 last weekend for the first time since late October, Miami finished its regular season a game below that mark.
The RedHawks were swept at Minnesota-Duluth, falling 3-1 in the series finale on Saturday.
It was just the second losing regular season for Miami in its past 11 campaigns, but both have come in the last three years.
The Bulldogs (15-14-5) opened the scoring when Willie Corrin drove to the net and had his initial shot saved by senior goalie Jay Williams, but the rebound came back to Corrin, who slammed it home 6:44 into the first period.
Miami forward Kiefer Sherwood (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
The RedHawks (15-16-3) tied it with 1:47 left in the opening stanza, as senior forward Sean Kuraly intercepted a pass and centered it to freshman forward Jack Roslovic. Roslovic one-touched it to freshman forward Kiefer Sherwood for a tap-in from the side of the net.
UMD took the lead for good when a rebound popped into the air, was controlled by Charlie Sampair and deposited in the net on Williams’ short side 2:26 into the final frame.
Alex Iafallo sealed it with an empty netter in the closing seconds.
Sherwood’s goal was his sixth in eight games, and Roslovic recorded his third helper in his last three contests. Kuraly also earned an assist on the RedHawks’ goal, as he wrapped up his final regular season with 16 points in his last 14 games.
Williams stopped 18 of 20 shots in the losing effort.
Despite the loss, MU actually moved up a spot in the PairWise and is currently tied for 22nd.
The RedHawks will return to Minnesota-Duluth next weekend for a best-of-3 opening-round series in the NCHC Tournament as the No. 5 seed.
Miami is 7-2 all-time in the league tournament, including 4-1 in the quarterfinal round. But the RedHawks went 0-3-1 against the Bulldogs in the regular season, scoring just three goals in the season series.
The best-of-3 will be played on March 11-13. Times are TBA.
Analysis: Early losses haunting Miami
At least Miami will be familiar with its opponent and the rink it will play in next weekend when it opens NCHC Tournament play.
The RedHawks were blown out, 5-0 at Minnesota-Duluth on Friday, ensuring they will finish fifth in their conference and will return to Duluth for a best-of-3 series on March 11-13.
Miami has played so well so often in the second half of this season, but this may be an example of a team falling too far behind and then needing all of its energy just to bounce back into contention.
In this league a team just can’t put itself in a position where it needs to win practically every game. The RedHawks did and are paying the price now.
We’ve seen in three years how ruthlessly competitive the NCHC is, and good teams are going to beat each other in league play.
That’s why giving away games and losing to inferior opponents is so costly. Miami cost itself numerous points with third-period disappearing acts in the first half of this season, which was capped off by a pair of devastating losses at league doormat Colorado College.
Say the RedHawks (15-15-3) only split at CC and turn a pair of other losses into ties or ties into wins. In this most conservative of scenarios, Miami would’ve headed into Duluth ahead of the Bulldogs by five points, needing just a tie to lock up home ice.
And after the extensive travel an NCHC season entails, home ice is certainly an advantage.
If Miami doesn’t make it out of Duluth next season, it would be easy to point at those games and say the RedHawks couldn’t win the big ones.
But those first-half struggles will have played at the very least an equal role in this team’s demise.
Other thoughts…
– Oh yeah, the game. It’s easier to talk about anything but that. Honestly not much needs to be said. It was a bad night, and teams will have those in this league. It’s just that Miami could ill-afford to come out flat in this game.
– It’s a lot harder to see details on a computer monitor vs., say an HD broadcast or – better yet – being at the rink, but one thing that stood out was a horrible line change that led to the second goal. As much good as the Columbus line has done since being assembled, it needs to do better. Two forwards can’t change in the second period with the long change when the other team has the puck.
– Evan McCarthy made his debut on Friday, which is an interesting move by coach Enrico Blasi on a number of fronts. Obviously Ryan McKay isn’t traveling with the team, and so McCarthy is the only backup option for Miami. Blasi must’ve felt like shaking things up to send a message to his team, which was in all-or-nothing mode at that point because a loss sealed its fate as a No. 5 seed. Also, Williams has logged every minute in net since GoalieGate, and even 10 minutes of rest may help in Saturday’s game in addition to the grueling best-of-3 ahead next week. It was a tough position for McCarthy, making his RedHawks debut in super-hostile territory against a red-hot UMD team. Hopefully the experience makes McCarthy a better goalie down the road and he can give the team depth at that position the next three years.
– Just wondering out loud here, but is flex scheduling a possibility in the future for TV games? Granted the outcome was one-sided, but this game had much more importance that the Western Michigan-North Dakota contest on CBS College Sports that saw the we-also-changed-our-mascot-to-something-Hawks win 8-1. It seems like these final weeks the league and/or network should be able to show the most riveting matchups, and a lot of times that’s an unknown the previous summer when TV schedules are drawn up.
– Senior defenseman Matthew Caito was out again on Friday, missing his third straight game, and that certainly didn’t help. Despite outscoring Colorado College, 7-0 last weekend, the RedHawks didn’t play their best hockey, and it’s obvious their overall play has taken a step back since Caito was injured. Hopefully he will be back for the playoffs next week.
– Is it actually worse to have a No. 5 seed vs. a 6-7-8? Obviously those lower three will face higher-caliber opponents in their best-of-3s — if there is such a thing in this conference — but North Dakota, St. Cloud and Denver are all essentially locked into NCAA Tournament berths. Minnesota-Duluth is tied for 14th in the PairWise and is still fighting for a spot. Remember two years ago when Miami was the No. 8 seed but went to top-seeded St. Cloud and swept?
Miami hammered at UMD
Miami is officially locked into a No. 5 seed for the NCHC Tournament, meaning it will not play any more games at Cady Arena this season.
The RedHawks fell, 5-0 at Minnesota-Duluth on Friday, ensuring that they will return to the Bulldogs’ home rink next weekend to open conference tournament play with a best-of-3 series.
A wrister from the blue line pinballed to Dominic Toninato, who was wide open at the side of the net and slammed the puck home to open the scoring just 5:05 into the contest.
Miami goalie Jay Williams (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
That ended Miami senior goalie Jay Williams’ shutout streak at 153:57 after the senior became the first goalie in team history to record a two-game weekend shutout vs. Colorado College last week.
A bad line change led to an odd-man rush, with Brenden Kotyk finishing at the top of the crease with 10:41 left in the second period.
With 54 seconds left in the middle stanza, Neal Pionk, who was left wide open in the slot, backhanded one over Williams to extend the Bulldogs’ lead to three.
Williams was pulled with about 10 minutes remaining, and freshman Evan McCarthy saw his first varsity action in a Miami uniform.
He was greeted rudely by UMD (14-14-5), however, with Karson Kuhlman beating him on the short side with 6:24 to play in regulation.
With 58 seconds to play, Kyle Osterberg scored to push the deficit to five.
The RedHawks (15-15-3) had won four of their previous five on the road and were 9-3 in their last 12 games.
Miami is now three points behind the Bulldogs in the conference standings but would lose the tiebreaker, meaning UMD has locked up that crucial final home spot for the first round of the conference tournament.
The RedHawks cannot drop lower than fifth either, as Nebraska-Omaha is six points back of them.
Miami’s PairWise ranking also took a hit, as the team fell to 23rd. The RedHawks would likely need to improve to 13 to ensure an NCAA Tournament berth, a tall task considering their next three or four games will be in Duluth before they would face even stiffer competition in the Frozen Faceoff.
It now appears likely Miami’s only shot to qualify for the national tournament would be to win the NCHC Tournament, which it did in 2014-15.
The RedHawks and UMD wrap up their weekend series at 8:07 p.m. on Saturday.
Photos: Minn.-Duluth at Miami
Images from the series between Minn.-Duluth at Miami on Jan. 9-10, 2016 at Cady Arena in Oxford, Ohio. All photos by Cathy Lachmann.
Analysis: Loss follows Miami MO
OXFORD, Ohio – Just a microcosm of the season.
Miami was every bit as good as Minnesota-Duluth in the first period but found itself down two, then four in the middle frame as the Bulldogs eventually went on to win, 5-2 at Cady Arena on Saturday.
An unlucky bounce for Miami – or a lucky one for UMD, depending on your perspective – resulted in the Bulldogs’ first goal.
Poor coverage in the slot ended up in Nos. 2 and 3, and as has been the case so often this season, those were two of the only breakdowns in front of the net for Miami (6-11-3), and the puck ended up in the back of the cage.
A bad play by senior goalie Ryan McKay made it 4-0, and that was essentially the night.
With past teams, a four-goal deficit would be a huge uphill climb but not insurmountable, but this RedHawks team has scored four goals in a game once, and the final tally in that contest was into an empty net.
This loss was crucial because Miami had a chance to pull within two points of UMD (8-7-4), which is in third place in the NCHC. Now the RedHawks are eight behind the Bulldogs.
Miami is now at the halfway point of its league schedule and has just 10 points in conference play, and earning two of six points this weekend made any ascent of the NCHC standings significantly more difficult.
With three points awarded for each game, 1½ points per game should put a team in the 4-5 seed range. That’s 36 points.
Miami needs to win nine of its final 12 league contests to reach that mark, and the RedHawks would likely need more than that to catch the fourth-seeded team.
All that comes back to the same axiomatic point: Miami needs to win more.
Other thoughts…
– McKay was pulled after the fourth goal, and he was visibly angry while departing. He launched his goalie stick down the tunnel, and it hit the edge of the stands and almost made its way into the seats. He also yelled something while leaving the bench. McKay did not come out with the team for the third period, and he also was not on the ice for practice Monday. That almost certainly means Jay Williams will be in net this Saturday. Freshman Evan McCarthy is the team’s third goalie, so we’ll see on Saturday if he is elevated to backup status on the interim.
– Miami ended its six-game power play drought as sophomore defenseman Louie Belpedio scored in the final second of a man advantage in the second period. The RedHawks were 0-for-16 in their previous six games with two shorthanded goals allowed.
– Let’s try to invoke some positives: For all of the problems Miami’s offense has had, senior forward Alex Gacek has one of the team’s best forwards in previous weeks. He is skating as well as he has his entire career and has been great in all three zones, although his points total doesn’t reflect that (it’s tough to pile up points when Miami scores three goals in a weekend).
– And classmate and captain Sean Kuraly looks like he is close to breaking out. Even with his struggles on offense, he has been solid on defense and in the faceoff circle, and he has been more active in the offensive zone in recent games as well.
GRADES
Miami freshman Ryan Siroky scored his first career goal on Saturday (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
FORWARDS: D. This corps managed just 10 shots on goal, and Miami had only six the final 40 minutes. Freshman Ryan Siroky, who is steadily improving, scored his first career goal on a laser from the outside of the faceoff circle, but that was one of the lone highlights for this group. Minnesota-Duluth did an excellent job of taking the Anthony Louis-Josh Melnick-Jack Roslovic line out of the game.
DEFENSEMEN: C. UMD was held to just 22 shots, more than a dozen fewer than on Friday, and Belpedio found the net. Players were left alone in front of the net on the Bulldogs’ second and third goals, but it’s unclear without replay ability whether that blame lies here or on the forwards.
GOALTENDING: C. McKay’s only real mistake was on the ENG after his bad clear on the fourth goal, and Williams was 6-for-6 in relief. With this team’s lack of offense, if the goalies’ grade isn’t a ‘B’ or better, Miami has little chance of winning.
LINEUP CHANGES: Up front, freshman Kiefer Sherwood was scratched in favor of senior Michael Mooney. It’s unclear why Sherwood sat, since he seemed pretty solid on Friday. On defense, freshman Grant Hutton did not dress for the first time this season, and junior Colin Sullivan returned to the ice. Hutton is having a solid rookie campaign but did struggled on Friday, and Sullivan continued to play well in limited action. He has to be one of the top seventh defensemen in all of college hockey.
UMD scores early, often to beat Miami
OXFORD, Ohio – Miami has played in plenty of one-goal games in previous months, but there was little doubt about Saturday’s outcome after the first period.
Minnesota-Duluth scored four unanswered goals en route to beating the RedHawks, 5-2 in the series finale at Cady Arena as Miami ended the weekend with just two of a possible six critical points.
Miami has now won only one of its last 10 games (1-7-2), remaining in seventh place in the NCHC. But the team in now just one point ahead of last-place Colorado College.
With 6:08 left in the first period, Neal Pionk put the Bulldogs ahead on a shot from the high slot that pinballed off several bodies before ricocheting into the net.
Less than three minutes later, RedHawks senior goalie Ryan McKay made a highlight-reel save on a point-blank shot by Austin Farley, but the rebound came to Tony Cameranesi, who fired the puck over a sprawled-out McKay from the slot, making it 2-0.
UMD (8-7-4) extended its lead the three when Dominic Toninato whipped a shot into the side of the cage off a drop pass from Blake Young seven minutes into the middle stanza.
Just 2:04 after that goal, McKay attempted a stretch pass from the side boards, but it was intercepted by Parker MacKay, who fired it into the empty net, ending McKay’s night.
Miami (6-11-3) did attempt a comeback, started by sophomore defenseman Louie Belpedio ripped a low shot that beat Bulldogs goalie Kasimir Koskisuo to make it 4-1 with 3:24 left in the second period.
RedHawks freshman Ryan Siroky spun and fired one top shelf for his first career goal to cut the deficit to two with 9:39 left in regulation.
Ryan Siroky (24) and Louie Belpedio (58) both scored on Saturday (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
Although Miami senior goalie Jay Williams did not allow a goal in relief, an empty netter from the neutral zone sealed the win for the Bulldogs with 2:50 to play.
The RedHawks managed just six total shots in the final 40 minutes, with two of them finding net.
Miami plays a single non-conference game against Bowling Green next weekend, with the puck drop scheduled for 7:05 p.m. at Cady Arena.
Analysis: Still hope for home ice
OXFORD, Ohio – Last Sunday, hopes were that Miami’s win over RPI was a momentum builder, as it scored three times in the third period for a boost heading into the heart of league play.
But it was business as usual for the RedHawks, Version 2015-16 on Friday, as once again they failed to hold a late lead and ended up tying Minnesota-Duluth, 1-1 at Cady Arena.
This time it was an equalizer by Tony Camenaresi with 5:38 left on a laser from the right faceoff circle.
It was the sixth straight NCHC game that Miami has given away valuable league point/points in the third period.
That bears repeating: In its last six conference games, the RedHawks have squandered at least one league point in the third period, many of which were lost late in the final stanza.
Let’s assume for a second that Miami had six more points. The team has given away two and three points in some of these contests (Friday it was just one, as the RedHawks won the 3-on-3), but add six points to its total.
That would give it a total of 16, good enough for third place in the NCHC. Plus instead of 6-10-3 – the RedHawks’ current record – it would be closer to 8-8-3, which would put Miami on the PairWise bubble with its brutal strength of schedule.
Instead the RedHawks have 10 and are mired in seventh place.
And yet, with all of the bad things that have happened to Miami this season, the team is just five points out of that No. 3 seed.
The team that holds that spot? UMD. So a win on Saturday would pull the RedHawks within two of the Bulldogs.
The top two seeds are off the board, as North Dakota and St. Cloud State are both 12 points ahead of the field. But home ice? Even at 2-7-2 in league play, Miami has every chance to get back into the race and earn home-ice advantage in the NCHC Tournament.
And unless the team’s record improves dramatically and quickly, home ice will be critical as the RedHawks hope to make the NCAA Tournament.
But none of these good things will happen for Miami if it can’t figure out how to maintain third-period leads.
Other thoughts…
– The RedHawks’ power play continues to have zero to do with power. Miami is 0-for-16 in its last six games and has allowed two shorthanded goals in that span for a net of minus-2 goals on the man advantage. That’s a special kind of bad. Not coincidentally, MU has scored two goals or fewer in five of those six games.
– Actually, the power play was so bad that Minn.-Duluth gained momentum on Miami’s first chance. The RedHawks were dominating early in the second period, but after doing zip on that opportunity, the Bulldogs controlled the pace the rest of that stanza and were the better team the rest of the way. Play was pretty even in the first period.
– Some perspective: UMD has a good team with excellent goaltending and talented forwards. It’s head-scratching that the team is 7-7-4, especially with so many key players back from last season. This team is poised for a second-half run, making Saturday’s game even more important for both squads.
– The attendance for this game was 1,743. When does this J-term end again?
– Was that actual rock music we heard in the second period? No kidding: An assortment of mostly standard rock selections was played in that frame before the powers-that-be returned to the same miserable crap fans have become accustomed to hearing. Hey, at least there was no Village Idiots or Neil Diamond in this game that normally makes hockey traditionalists want to jam ice picks through their ear drums.
– Per the NCHC, it looks like Miami will don its red jerseys for home games the rest of the season. Not sure what the point of changing that up is.
GRADES
FORWARDS: D. This corps combined for one point (assist by senior Andrew Schmit) and managed a whopping 20 shots in 65 minutes. Freshman Jack Roslovic looked either disinterested or tired late, and with few offensive weapons this team needs him to be focused at all times. The Crash Cousins line, with Ryan Siroky, played well together, with sophomore Conor Lemirande also playing a role in Miami’s lone goal. The Zach LaValle-Kiefer Sherwood duo appears to be building chemistry, and the pair of freshmen will hopefully evolve together for the next three-plus years.
DEFENSEMEN: C-. Too many odd-man rushes, too many unnecessary icings. Not a typical shut-down effort from this group, although Coach Enrico Blasi did shake up the pairings as Louie Belpedio returned, which may have affected chemistry. Senior Matthew Caito took a 4-on-4 shot from the faceoff circle that whistled wide, and that’s how UMD scored its lone goal. That shot has to be on net, and he’d probably be the first to admit that, although he was his typical solid self otherwise. Grant Hutton has been a defensive staple in his freshman year but struggled in this game. He looks like a natural right D-man and was a little awkward on the left side. Chris Joyaux did score the team’s lone goal, which elevates this group out into the ‘D’ range.
Jay Williams stopped 36 shots for Miami on Friday (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
GOALTENDING: A. There’s the hockey cliché of stealing a win, but can a goalie steal a tie? Jay Williams stopped 36 shots, and it was practically a shooting gallery his way the final 25 of regulation. There wasn’t one signature save on the night, but he was strong the whole game and was excellent at controlling his rebounds. His best effort of the season by far. The one goal was an absolute rip ticketed for the corner of the net. Without Williams, this game goes in the loss column for Miami.
LINEUP CHANGES: Up front it was Devin Loe out and Conor Lemirande in on Friday, perhaps because of the ultra-physical nature of UMD. With Belpedio returning from the World Juniors, he was back on the blue line after playing in Finland this week. His presence relegated fellow defenseman Colin Sullivan to the scratch column despite his strong play last weekend. Williams was in net for the second straight game, and he certainly has earned at least a split of playing time with Ryan McKay, who will probably start on Saturday.
Miami ties UMD; earns 2 points
OXFORD, Ohio – Once again, Miami couldn’t close out a win.
The RedHawks managed two points in a 1-1 tie vs. Minnesota-Duluth at Cady Arena on Friday, allowing a tying third-period goal and earning the extra point in 3-on-3 play.
Josh Melnick (right) and Louis Belpedio (left) celebrate Belpedio’s OT goal (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
Miami has now held the lead after two periods seven times this season and has won just three of those games.
Senior goalie Jay Williams stopped 36 shots for the RedHawks, the highest save total for a Miami netminder this season.
After a scoreless first period, the RedHawks took the lead when senior defenseman Chris Joyaux backhanded one through Bulldogs goalie Kasimir Kaskisuo’s pads 2:16 into the middle frame.
Miami held the lead until the 14:22 mark of the final frame, when Tony Cameranesi blasted a shot by Williams on a 4-on-4 to tie the score.
The puck went in and out of the net so quickly that it was initially ruled no goal before replay confirmed the puck hit the inside of the cage.
The game was officially recorded as a tie, and Louis Belpedio knocked the puck home in the second extra session to give the RedHawks the extra point in the conference standings.
Joyaux had scored one career goal entering this season but has found the net in consecutive games and has four markers this season.
Senior forward Andrew Schmit earned the lone assist, his third of the campaign.
With the two points, Miami now has 10 in 11 games and remains in seventh place in the NCHC at 2-7-2.
At 3-2-2 when leading after two periods, the RedHawks’ winning percentage in those scenarios is just .571.
These teams wrap up their weekend series at 7:05 p.m. on Saturday.
Preview: Minn.-Duluth at Miami
WHO: Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs (7-7-3) at Miami RedHawks (6-10-2).
WHERE: Cady Arena, Oxford, Ohio.
WHEN: Friday–7:35 p.m.; Saturday–7:05 p.m.
TV: Friday–Time Warner Sportsnet (DirecTV Ch. 691).
MINN.-DULUTH RADIO: WWAX-FM (92.1), Duluth, Minn.
MIAMI RADIO: WMOH-AM (1450), Hamilton, Ohio; WKBV-AM (1490), Richmond, Ind.
NOTES: Minnesota-Duluth has not played a game since Dec. 12, so Miami has a chance to catch the Bulldogs rusty, at least early in the weekend series.
UMD was shut out in each of its last two games, 3-0 losses at home vs. North Dakota.
The Bulldogs went through a rough patch defensively earlier this season but have allowed just nine goals in their last seven games, including three straight blankings.
Austin Farley leads UMD in goals (10) and points (19), and Tony Cameranesi is tops in assists with 12 and second in points with 17 despite missing two games.
Kasimir Kaskisuo has been in net for all of the Bulldogs’ games this season, posting a 1.91 goals-against average and a save percentage of .923.
These teams never met until 2008 in the NCAA West Regional. They split their four-game set last season, and UMD holds a 4-3 edge in the all-time series.
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