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Analysis: Sweep of CC now paramount
Pulling off a sweep at Western Michigan was going to a tall order, even with the Broncos struggling this season.
Miami fell, 4-1 in the series finale in Kalamazoo on Saturday, but fortunately for the RedHawks, they only fell one spot in PairWise and did not drop in the conference standings, as both teams they are tied with were defeated as well.
Miami remains in a three-way tie with Nebraska-Omaha and Minnesota-Duluth for the all-important fourth and final home ice spot for the first round of the NCHC Tournament.
The problem is: The RedHawks would lose the tiebreaker vs. both teams if they remain even. We’ll explain more thoroughly if it appears this scenario may come to fruition, but for now, trust us, Miami takes sixth if they can’t surge past one of both of these teams.
As we explained yesterday, the RedHawks control their own destiny to a large degree, as they host last-place Colorado College next week and head to UMD to wrap up the season.
(And it could end up Miami and UMD play back-to-back weekends: Imagine the carnage if those teams met four or five times in nine days)
Sweeping hapless Colorado College at home next weekend is now paramount if the RedHawks want home ice, and if that happens it will greatly increase the team’s chance of making the NCAA Tournament.
As for the game itself, Miami outshot WMU, 31-28 including 8-2 the final period. The RedHawks didn’t play that badly but allowing a goal in the final second of a period is devastating.
The Broncos capitalized on the momentum of that second goal by adding a third early in the second period and Miami was essentially done.
The RedHawks’ goal came on a pretty passing play, with Kevin Morris putting it in for his fifth goal in nine games.
Other thoughts…
– So that’s five shorthanded goals against this season for Miami, and zero for. The RedHawks are one of only five teams in Division I without a shorty and the lone team in the NCHC.
– Realizing that down by two goals midway through the third period a team is going to pinch, but the RedHawks’ defense was flat-out miserable on WMU’s fourth goal. Both defensemen were caught up the ice and Anthony Louis weakly flailed at the outlet stretch pass that ultimately resulted in the final goal.
– Senior night is next weekend. How will the team handle the Ryan McKay situation? Tune in next week.
Analysis: No. 4 seed paramount for Miami
Is it too early to schedule watch?
Especially since we’re in the online world, the answer is a definite ‘no’.
Besides, there are only five games left in the regular season and all of them will be important for Miami, which beat Western Michigan, 4-1 at Lawson Ice Arena in Kalamazoo on Friday.
Thanks to that win, the RedHawks are currently in a three-way tie for fourth with Nebraska-Omaha and Minnesota-Duluth — both of whom lost on Friday — and that No. 4 spot is paramount if Miami wants to qualify for its 10th NCAA Tournament in 11 years.
As opposed to missing it for the second time in three seasons.
Here’s why this race is so important…
North Dakota and St. Cloud have run away with the top two spots. The RedHawks can’t even mathematically catch either team.
And Denver is a win away from securing a top-three spot, so the 1-3 seeds are off the table for Miami, unless it wins out and the Pioneers lose out. Which is not realistic.
That leaves the fourth spot as the last remaining one for home-ice advantage in the first round of the NCHC Tournament.
To round out the field, Western Michigan – especially after the RedHawks’ win on Friday – and Colorado College are virtually locked into the bottom two spots.
Meaning Miami will battle UMD and UNO for the four, five and six seeds.
Six plays the third-place finisher between UND, St. Cloud and Denver on the road. No thanks.
Five travels to the winner of this three-team cluster. In other words, it plays the hottest team of these three on the road. Again, nah.
In the scenario in which the RedHawks finish fifth or sixth, they will likely not have the wins necessary to keep an at-large possibility alive, which is why the next 15 days are so important.
The good news is that Miami is playing its best hockey of the season. More good news is that the other two teams the RedHawks are battling for that coveted home-ice spot face tougher remaining slates.
UMD is at North Dakota again on Saturday after losing to UND in overtime on Friday, then it travels to second-place St. Cloud State for a pair of games next week before capping its regular season by hosting Miami.
UNO hosts St. Cloud on Saturday after falling to SCSU, 4-1 on Friday. The Mavericks wrap up their regular season with two against North Dakota at home and a pair at Denver.
Miami is at seventh-place WMU for one more on Saturday, hosts last-place Colorado College next week and finishes with a series at Minnesota-Duluth. Those opponents are a combined 24-54-9.
And if the RedHawks can’t put up a good showing in this stretch run, they don’t deserve NCAA consideration anyway.
Winning three of its final five would be just OK for Miami and would probably hurt its PairWise. Taking four would be preferable, and running the table would be ideal.
A losing record in this span would be devastating and would likely result in a road trip for a best-of-3 and then having to at minimum advance to Minneapolis for a shot at an NCAA berth.
Other thoughts…
– Anthony Louis scored his eighth and ninth goals of the season on Friday. We’ve mentioned his second-half surges before but haven’t thoroughly evaluated.
Miami’s Anthony Louis (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
This is Louis’ third season with Miami, and he has 10 goals in 52 games in October, November and December and 20 in 55 contests in January and beyond.
In terms of points, Louis has recorded 32 of his points before New Year’s and 50 after, or an average of 0.62 vs. 0.95.
And he has been clutch in the postseason, recording 13 points in 11 games in the NCHC and NCAA Tournaments, including six goals.
– This was the 29th game of Miami’s season and the first time the RedHawks have scored multiple goals in the first period. They had just 12 markers in the first 28 opening frames this season.
Miami goalie Jay Williams (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
– Jay Williams stopped 27 of 28 shots to earn the win in this game and has been a rock since taking over following GoalieGate. Williams is 7-2 with a 2.11 goals-against average and a .917 save percentage in the nine-plus games since, and that’s with two five-goal games, with both featuring multiple tallies he had zero chance on.
– Jack Roslovic and Josh Melnick combined for just one assist on Friday but were still integral to the team’s scoring. Roslovic would’ve gotten third assists for two of the goals, and Melnick’s helper was the direct result of him stealing a puck at center ice and lifting it ahead to Louis, who did his thing to make it 1-0. Roslovic also just missed a goal at the end of the second period, so he’s still making offensive contributions, even if they aren’t showing up on the scoresheet.
Analysis: Surge due to increased scoring
BOWLING GREEN, Ohio – Friday’s game was an interesting mix of both halves of Miami’s season: The first portion when the RedHawks couldn’t score and the most recent segment when they could.
Miami scored four times in the final 28 minutes to beat Bowling Green, 4-1 at BGSU Ice Arena after failing to hit the net on 16 first-period shots and a handful more in the middle stanza before breaking through.
The RedHawks scored an average of 2.07 goals in calendar year 2015 of this season and are netting 2.92 in 2016. Not coincidentally, Miami was 5-9-2 on New Year’s Day and is 7-4-1 since.
And the RedHawks have found scoring from other sources than Jack Roslovic and Josh Melnick. They’ve had to, as both have two markers in their last 11 games.
Sean Kuraly is back to his 19-goal form of 2014-15. Anthony Louis is doing his Anthony Louis second-half studly thing. Kiefer Sherwood was coming into his own before joining Roslovic’s top line and he’s thriving now.
BoB has said since August that with its core of veteran defensemen and goalies, this team would be fine if it can score enough. Now it is.
Miami has allowed five goals three times in its last 11 outings, all losses. MU is 7-0-1 when allowing three or fewer in that stretch.
Friday’s crowd was a hostile one as well, and seeing the RedHawks play so well in that environment bodes well for them the next couple of weeks, as they will visit Western Michigan and Minnesota-Duluth, sandwiching a home series vs. Colorado College to wrap up the regular season.
Five wins in those final six would be optimal, four would get Miami over .500 but probably not where it needs to be in PairWise. Three or fewer would be a disaster against the fourth, seventh and eighth place teams in the NCHC.
The way the RedHawks are playing right now, there’s an excellent chance they win the majority of their remaining regular season games and earn home ice for the first round of the NCHC Tournament.
Other thoughts…
– This was a tough game to watch as a Miami fan, because one (OK, I) got the feeling the hot goalie – BGSU’s Nell – might steal one. He made some good saves and the RedHawks missed some great chances. The Louis goal seemed to open the floodgates, and after the Kuraly goal, MU did an outstanding job of fending off the Falcons’ ensuing surge at the end of the second period.
Anthony Louis (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
– Speaking of Louis, I have no idea how he scored the equalizer. He had no apparent angle to shoot at and somehow was able to roof one. What a great way to make up for fanning on a high-quality opportunity earlier.
– Really impressed with Kiefer Sherwood since January. Having a future NHL star in Roslovic on your line doesn’t exactly hurt, but it feels like he’s going to put up huge offensive numbers in his four years in Oxford. He was involved in a pushing match in the first period with a chippy BGSU team, and that seemed to elevate his game, the sign of a strong player.
– These were definitely not NCHC officials. There were 11 total power plays – seven for Miami, tying a season high – including a pair of two-man advantages. Don’t have the stats for it, but I can’t remember Miami or an opponent having a 5×3 all season. It’s rare to see a team with four or more power plays in a game with NCHC referees. Definitely inconsistent.
– Great BGSU crowd. The rink was sold out, and the Falcons fans were enthusiastic and into the game, which unfortunately is not always the case in Oxford. Best of luck to Bowling Green the rest of the season in its quest for the NCAAs.
GRADES
FORWARDS: A-. Really liked the Melnick-Gacek-Louis (AJA – Anthony, Josh, Alex) line. The Crash Cousins line was also strong, barring a bad turnover by Conor Lemirande at his defensive blue line which fortunately didn’t result in a goal. Loving that top line, of course, which accounted for two goals. If we had to nitpick, and that’s what we do, Roslovic is still too committed to carrying the puck through multiple defenders, and as a result he turned it over too often.
DEFENSEMEN: A. Bowling Green was super aggressive, leading to some solid scoring chances, but this corps did a great job of shutting most down. Louie Belpedio broke up a 3-on-1, and Chris Joyaux and Grant Hutton shut down quality opportunities as well. Taylor Richart did his unsexy shut-down thing as well, as did Matthew Caito, who pumped in the clinching empty netter.
GOALTENDING: A. Jay Williams had to deny a clean breakaway 52 seconds into the game, and he shagged it cleanly to set the pace for the rest of the game. He had to make his best stops in the first period, and Bowling Green scored on a point-blank tip that he had little chance on. Williams has appeared in 11 straight games with no end in sight, and hopefully he won’t tire down the stretch run, as it appears he is this team’s only option for the immediate future.
LINEUP CHANGES: Joyaux was back in the lineup, replacing Colin Sullivan on the blue line, and Andrew Schmit was back on the fourth line, replacing Ryan Siroky, who sat for just the second time in 2015-16. Devin Loe centered the Crash Cousins’ line, which played well with the exception of the aforementioned Lemirande turnover. Still no word on goalie Ryan McKay, who is suspended indefinitely. Evan McCarthy remains Miami’s backup in net.
Analysis: SCSU transition killed Miami
OXFORD, Ohio – Sometimes in hockey the final score is not indicative of the game itself.
That was the case on Friday, when St. Cloud State beat Miami, 5-1 at Cady Arena despite being badly outshot and having the RedHawks dictate play for much of the night.
That’s not in any way to say the wrong team won, as the Huskies were masterful at creating chances off of the transition and burying shots when they had their opportunities.
In a way it was a microcosm of the season: SCSU finished its chances and Miami did not. That’s a key reason the Huskies have eight players with 20 or more points and the RedHawks have one.
Against a team as good as St. Cloud State, a team has to convert its chances, and Miami had plenty in the first period but went into the first intermission down one.
At that point it felt like the night might have been lost.
Josh Melnick celebrates after scoring Miami’s goal (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
To the RedHawks’ credit, Melnick scored 15 seconds into the second period to tie it, but MU spent way too much time chasing Huskies down the ice the rest of the game, and SCSU made Miami pay.
Time is quickly running out on the RedHawks if they hope to have any chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament or home-ice advantage for the first round of the NCHC Tournament.
Miami remained 24th in the PairWise and would need to climb to at least 14th for an at-large, which would require at least at 6-2 record and a first-round NCHC win (preferably a sweep). That’s the bare minimum, and a win on Saturday would be a great start.
In terms of NCHC standings, the RedHawks are tied for fifth but are only three points out of fourth with fourth-place Minn.-Duluth and the two lowest teams – Western Michigan and Colorado College – left on the schedule.
It comes down to winning, and Miami will need to do a lot of that in the next few weeks or it will need to run the table in the NCHC Tournament to get into the NCAAs.
Other thoughts…
– Starting to think the Conor Lemirande hat trick may not have been the best thing for the Crash Cousins line, as they were caught down the ice twice on odd-man chances that resulted in St. Cloud State goals. That’s at least three times since the offensive breakout game at UNO. The grind line’s job is to neutralize the other team’s offense and to make sure nothing bad happens for 30 seconds, and this line is becoming way too aggressive since its three-goal game.
– Sean Kuraly was moved to center of the Kiefer Sherwood and Jack Roslovic line, and they created tons of scoring chances but couldn’t find the net. Roslovic has been outstanding the past couple of weekends, and after fanning on two first-period chances from the left side of the net, he set up countless more for others.
– Of course loading up a line comes at a cost to another, and Justin Greenberg’s line with Kevin Morris and Zach LaValle did little (Morris did have five shots but non high quality).
– All in favor of defensemen pinching in the right spots, but one really has to pick one’s spots against a high-powered team like St. Cloud, and too many times Miami’s D got caught in this one. This RedHawks team is not built to match speed and offensive chances with a team like the Huskies, so expect a lot more conservative play on Saturday unless the Huskies have the lead late.
– Like the idea of the red and white checkered effect in the stands, but most did not adhere to it. Section 12 was white, and the only white Miami attire this fan has is his jersey, which did come down off the mantle, but it’s coat weather at the rink, and few have white coats. Maybe they could coordinate with the pre-meds next time they attempt this?
GRADES
FORWARDS: D. For a team that had 36 shots – 32 by the forwards – only a handful were quality chances, and almost all of them were created by the Roslovic line. One exception was the goal, of course, and honestly, the shot by Gacek should’ve been handled cleanly and Melnick shouldn’t have had a rebound opportunity. Anthony Louis was not tough on defense and gave too much space when SCSU scored its first goal. On the next two the Crash Cousins line got caught deep.
DEFENSEMEN: C-. As mentioned above, too much pinching and too many high quality shots against. Louie Belpedio has been very good since returning from World Juniors for the most part but did not have a strong game, going minus-3. Even dependable Taylor Richart made an errant pass in the offensive zone that ultimately ended up in the net. And they did not contribute on offense, although Grant Hutton did have a small hand in Miami’s lone goal by holding a puck in the zone, giving his a secondary assist.
GOALTENDING: C-. Sort of like last Saturday, Jay Williams had no chance on some goals, made a couple of great saves and gave up a goal he would’ve liked back. The first goal was an NHL-caliber backhand. No. 2 was on a breakaway, and neither goalie has been great on those this season. The third one snuck through on the backhand, and Williams should have been able to make the stop. SCSU’s fourth and fifth goals were on odd-man chances with wide-open players at the side of the net. He did make an unbelievable save on a point-blank one-time chance in the second period. If Ryan McKay was an option, Game 2 would be a good time to change it up in net with 10 goals against in two games, but it looks like Williams in the team’s only real option right now.
LINEUP CHANGES: Coach Enrico Blasi switched pairings and tweaked lines but went with the same 19 for the sixth straight game. With consecutive decisive losses a change or two might be in the cards for Saturday’s finale.
Analysis: Margin for error low for Miami
OXFORD, Ohio – The better team won both games this weekend at Cady Arena.
Unfortunately for Miami, that meant after winning the series opener against Denver, the RedHawks fell to the Pioneers, 5-3 in the finale on Saturday.
The strange thing about Game 2 was Miami was badly outplayed in the first period but came away from that frame with the lead.
The RedHawks were much improved in the second and third periods but were outscored in both.
Typically in the ultra-competitve NCHC, teams splitting against a ranked in-conference team is OK, so long as they are beating the bottom dwellers.
The problem for Miami is it dug itself such a deep hole that 1-1 weekends are no longer suffice if it hopes to get back into NCAA Tournament contention.
At 24th in the PairWise, the RedHawks still have much work remaining before any serious NCAA talks can begin. And Miami now will play the majority of its nine remaining games away from Cady Arena.
As mentioned before, strength of schedule will help Miami if it gets to .500 or above, but one caveat as we move forward: The NCAA now requires teams to post at least a .500 winning percentage to qualify for an at-large bid.
But judging from its positioning in PairWise (24th) vs. its record (two games under .500), this looks like it will probably be a self-policing situation. Just wanted to throw it out there.
A 6-3 finish to the regualar season would suffice the winning percentage requirement, assuming Miami can win at least one in the best-of-3, and there’s a good chance that in that scenario that series would be played in Oxford.
It may take a 7-2 mark plus a trip to Minneapolis to get into the top 14 in PairWise, which is probably where Miami would need to advance to for a fairly safe NCAA berth.
The RedHawks’ small margin for error makes next weekend so important and such a high-risk, high-reward series, since wins will be tough to come by against the second-ranked (in the PairWise) Huskies but could be very lucrative.
Other thoughts…
– Back to the game…too many turnovers, especially in the first period when Miami seemingly was essentially in penalty kill mode for 20 minutes. Forwards didn’t seem to get back on D or backcheck very well, and after standing on his head for the first four periods of the weekend, senior goalie Jay Williams led in a couple of outside shots he normally stops. The flip side of that is: Denver is a very good team that played a very good game in most facets (goalie Tanner Jaillet wasn’t that great would be the only knock on the Pioneers in this one).
– Jack Roslovic’s set-up of Kiefer Sherwood was world class and was shown repeatedly on the big screen, as it should have been. A world-class play by a world-class player. He still needs to stop trying to carry the puck through three and four players, which he was probably able to get away with at the last level.
– Obviously skaters cannot record saves, but both Alex Gacek and Chris Joyaux kept pucks from going into the net by sprawling across the crease. Great effort by both on their respective “saves”.
– Our nightly GoalieGate update: There is no update. Ryan McKay was scratched again on Saturday, and it’s unknown if/when he will return. One thing of note regarding goalies: Ryan Larkin is with the team but is recovering from an upper body injury and is out for the season. Larkin, the cousin of Detroit Red Wings star Dylan Larkin, came to Oxford earlier this month to start on classwork and will be a freshman this fall. Good move by him and by the program.
GRADES
FORWARDS: C. They scored all three goals, but as mentioned above, the backchecking and defense by this group left much to be desired, and they turned the puck over way too much. Nice to see the Roslovic-Sherwood combo generating offense as well as Kuraly scoring by driving the net. So glad to see Alex Gacek having a solid senior season.
DEFENSEMEN: C. Kind of a comme ci, comme ca game for this group. No standouts for either good or bad reasons. It does bear mentioning that Louie Belpedio has been much more solid overall since returning from Finland.
GOALTENDING: C-. Tough call here. Williams was the difference in the first period but was 16 of 21 the final 40 minutes. To be fair, he had zero chance on the first goals, and on the fourth one Shore ended up with puck all alone in the slot for multiple seconds after an unfortunate bounce for Miami. And Williams made the initial save on the third goal. The second and fifth ones were two he would’ve wanted back, but the fifth one was a laser that found the top corner of the net.
LINEUP CHANGES: None again. This is the fifth straight game Coach Enrico Blasi has gone with these 18 skaters plus Williams in net.
Analysis: Miami thriving late in games?
Following Miami’s painful struggles late in games earlier this season, the RedHawks have now pulled off back-to-wins in the closing minutes.
The RedHawks beat No. 7 Nebraska-Omaha, 3-1 at Baxter Arena on Friday, thanks largely to senior defenseman Matthew Caito’s one-timer that put MU ahead for good with 2:03 left.
Miami also beat Bowling Green on Oxford last weekend on a marker by senior forward Anthony Louis in the final seconds.
This game was payback for earlier in the season when the Mavericks stole four points from the RedHawks in the Oxford series. A third-period goal helped UNO earn a tie in the first game of that set, and Nebraska-Omaha took the finale in overtime.
Coming out on the wrong side numerous times in the first half of this campaign had two possible outcomes: 1) Crash and burn, let’s try it again next fall, or 2) get stronger, learn how to deal with those situations and start winning.
At least in the last seven days, Miami looks like it has chosen the latter.
It’s obvious 22 games into this season that this isn’t the 2007-08 RedHawks in terms of talent, or even the 2014-15 team. Miami clearly doesn’t have that kind of offensive firepower.
But there’s still plenty of talent there, and the freshmen development – Ryan Siroky, Kiefer Sherwood, Josh Melnick, Grant Hutton, Zach LaValle – has been steady. Jack Roslovic needs to get going again, but he is likely the most talented of all the RedHawks and the smart money is on him heating up again soon.
Anthony Louis is doing his annual getting-hot-in-the-second-half thing. Sean Kuraly looks so much better than he did in October when he had the weight of the world on his shoulders. Alex Gacek is having his best season, and it’s fun to watch his supersonic speed.
The defense is so good that poor Colin Sullivan – a top six on almost every team in Division I – can’t get into the lineup consistently. Scott Dornbrock, who was maybe the No. 5 or 6 blueliner coming in, has been a rock the last few games, and the three seniors on that corps are playing like Miami seniors should.
Jay Williams
And let’s not discount goaltending. Since the Ryan McKay meltdown, Jay Williams is 2-0 with a 0.80 goals-against average and a .968 save percentage.
Not piling on McKay, but all along it looked like this team needed something to fire it up. Perhaps in some way that was it. College seniors like Williams who are in the final stretch run of their amateur careers can do amazing things when given the opportunity.
Miami will need to win a lot more games like this: Low-scoring, tight-checking contests against top 10 teams. But for two games at least, the RedHawks appear up for the challenge, and there is still plenty of time for them to get back into NCAA Tournament contention.
Other thoughts…
– 76 faceoffs. Yikes. The officials probably have sore jaws from using their whistles. Still too many off-sides and icing violations for late January, and Miami won less than half of those draws.
– Overall, Miami has been much better in the third period in recent games. In their last six contests, the RedHawks have outscored opponents, 7-3 in the final stanza.
– Speaking of officiating, it was pretty bad both ways. The penalties were inconsistent, and even the announcers were stunned that Zach LaValle’s goal was overturned. For those who didn’t see, LaValle backhanded a loose puck after UNO goalie Zach Blankenburg made an initial save. Blankenburg was sprawled out, and LaValle grazed him with his skate as he addressed the puck, but the goalie was in no way interfered with.
– But Miami kept up the surge in that second period, outshooting the Mavericks, 15-6 after an evenly-played, slow-paced first frame.
– This game was nationally broadcast on CBS College Sports, but for a brand-new arena that looked beautiful, the in-game camera was way too far away, making it difficult to follow the puck at times even in HD.
Star Man
– While Ben Holden and the Starmen do a great job with all college hockey broadcasts – this one being no exception – the lovefest for Austin Ortega was Pat Cannone-esque over the top. And their nickname of California Hot Sauce is a stretch at best. Actually, isn’t the Ortega brand best known for its taco sauce?
– Apparently Miami has truly reached the big time, as play-by-play announcer Greg Waddell was picked up from the Omaha airport via limo.
GRADES
FORWARDS: B-. Not a fan of the Roslovic-Justin Greenberg-Sherwood line combination, although it did produce the first goal. For the most part, there’s no chemistry between the trio, and Sherwood scored after seizing a loose puck caused by Greenberg absorbing a hit, which while a good hockey play has nothing to do with players jelling.
Miami’s Anthony Louis (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
Roslovic is too good to have his offensive prowess stifled and needs to play on a line that enhances his game instead of hindering it. Liking the Louis-Melnick-Gacek line though. Louis was everywhere in this game, and Melnick had one of his best efforts in recent history as well. Bottom line: They generated two goals – should’ve been three with LaValle’s shot – and one was an empty netter. But the effort was solid, and this corps should be able to continue building from this game.
DEFENSEMEN: B. Caito’s game winner was the biggest play of the game. Hutton and Dornbrock stepped up in this one, and the rest of this group played at its usual high level. The double minor to Chris Joyaux did lead to UNO’s lone goal, although the case could’ve been made that it should’ve been coincidentals after the retaliation slashes Joyaux too. But still, this Mavericks team is too potent to get five power plays.
GOALTENDING: A+. Here’s where the game was won. Williams stopped 27 of 28 shots, and the one that got by was a rip by one of the top scorers in college hockey on a one-timer off a pass through the slot on the power play. Williams had no chance on it. He made the save of the year with his glove in the first period off a one-timer from right on the doorstep in the first period, shut down another excellent chance off a passing play through the offensive zone and made a big stop after Miami had taken the lead to preserve the win. With Miami’s lack of offense, the pressure on Williams must be intense, and he has stepped up the challenge back-to-back games.
LINEUP CHANGES: None. This is about the time of year that Coach Enrico Blasi likes to settle on 18 skaters and stick with it for the most part, and it looks like this is the group he likes for the stretch run. Michael Mooney and Colin Sullivan were scratched for the second straight game, and Devin Loe has not dressed in any of the last four. Ryan McKay also sat again, as third goalie Evan McCarthy remained in the active backup role for the second consecutive tilt.
Analysis: League points slipping away
NOTE: My apologies on not writing about the recent away games. The truth is with high school football on Fridays and Saturdays and excruciating early Sunday hours, I missed the St. Cloud and North Dakota series. With preps winding down I’ll be able to watch the team on the road the remainder of the season.
OXFORD, Ohio – Four league points have escaped Miami in its last two games because of three third period and overtime goals against.
Obviously that is a troubling trend, as the RedHawks and No. 6 Nebraska-Omaha played to a 3-3 tie at Cady Arena on Friday, although Miami did manage to pick up a second point with a 3-on-3 goal by sophomore defenseman Louie Belpedio.
Last Saturday, the RedHawks led late but surrendered an extra-attacker goal and another in overtime in a 4-3 loss at North Dakota.
Disturbing is that this is a veteran team, especially on the back end. Miami’s goalies are both seniors, and its defensemen are senior-senior-senior-junior-sophomore-sophomore-freshman.
The forwards are admittedly young, but are the freshmen up front really the root of this team’s inability to close out games, or for that matter the RedHawks’ sub-.500 start?
Miami’s Jack Roslovic (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
Jack Roslovic and Josh Melnick are the only two consistent scorers on this team right now, and the other regular rookies in the lineup are Ryan Siroky, Kiefer Sherwood and Zach LaValle, none of which have been a burden to Miami’s lineup and all look like candidates to have solid careers in Oxford.
Roslovic does carry the puck too much and the results sometimes aren’t good, but he’s 18 and he has eight of the team’s 28 goals this season, so the gain of him in the lineup is still a major positive (to further that point, he and Melnick have 13 of the team’s goals, nearly half).
Lack of scoring was a major factor the first 11 games – still is overall – but the RedHawks scored three goals in their last two games and have an 0-1-1 record to show for it.
The frustrating thing is that it hasn’t been a consistent weak link – poor goaltending, a shallow defense pool, forwards that don’t play both ways, a meager penalty kill, etc. (Miami has been good overall in all of those areas) – but the past two games, opponents are making big plays and Miami isn’t.
I’m sure I’m in the minority, but a 6-2 loss last Friday at North Dakota bothers me a lot less than a 4-3 overtime loss the next night or a blown late lead again this Friday.
Teams have bad nights, heck look at Western Michigan’s 11-1 loss at St. Cloud State last week. But the Broncos beat this UNO team twice on the road days before.
In a league as competitive as the NCHC, it’s the close games that are so important, and losing points the way Miami has is tough to watch, especially with a team like the RedHawks that everyone knew was going to depend on a veteran presence on defense and in net, meaning lots of low-scoring close games.
Miami did a solid job of winning those tight games against WMU two weeks ago, but against stiffer competition its last two games, the RedHawks have not measured up in the clutch.
The result: Four lost points in those contests.
Really it’s been a six-year trend, Miami snatching defeat from the jaws of victory too many times, and on a team that will play in a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games the rest of this season, it just can’t afford to lose 4-3 the way it has the last two games.
Other thoughts…
The ultimate result was a tie on Friday, but the RedHawks played very well overall (maybe not so much the third period) against one of the best teams in college hockey.
Sean Kuraly didn’t score but looked a lot more confident than he had earlier in the season.
Like Kuraly, Belpedio has not played his best to start 2015-16 but was impressive in this game.
Grant Hutton is really stepping into the shut-down defenseman role.
Sherwood seems to get better every game.
The Crash Cousins were entertaining to watch, throwing around their combined 500 pounds of muscle.
Taylor Richart, Chris Joyaux and Matthew Caito are playing their best hockey on the blue line in their senior seasons.
Miami defenseman Scott Dornbrock (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
Defenseman Scott Dornbrock played arguably his best game of the season.
The cliché about the process vs. the result should not be ignored, but still the process and simply playing well don’t earn teams NCAA Tournament berths, so Miami needs to still evolve and also win more.
– How about the power play? The RedHawks are 7-for-17 on the man advantage their last five games with at least one PPG in each. That’s even more impressive considering the caliber of Miami’s recent opponents and how young its top unit is. Actually both units. The RedHawks are now 24.0 percent on the power play.
– The PK is now 44 of 46 (95.7 percent) after another shut-down effort last night.
– So if Miami has an offense problem and has 12 power play goals, that must mean the team isn’t scoring at even strength. The RedHawks have 16 even-strength goals in 13 games, or 1.23 per contest. That’s really dreadful.
– Really hate to play the Debbie Downer role, but Miami celebrated the goal that isn’t really a goal by Belpedio as if it had won the Stanley Cup when in reality that goal likely means absolutely nothing. That is, unless the RedHawks move up a seed because of a one-point difference in the conference standings (in the bizarre coincidence department, the only two teams that finished a point apart in the NCHC standings last season were Miami and UNO, with the RedHawks taking the two seed by a point over the Mavericks).
One more time: It was a tie. And when a team is a game below .500 like Miami is and has a chance to beat one of the best teams in college hockey but squanders a late lead, it’s not a good night.
And really the overwhelming majority of fans just don’t get it, and while the 3-on-3 is great, minimizing shootouts is great (I would argue eliminate them, but that’s for another time), both are confusing and ultimately pointless from a standings perspective, no pun intended.
I get where the league was going with this, I really do, and it’s an admirable goal to have a winner and a loser each night. But when the extra action has so little meaning and confuses fans, it isn’t worth it.
So to recap: Belpedio scored but doesn’t get credit for a goal, Miami won the 3-on-3 but is credited with a tie (the scoreboard operator doesn’t get it either – erroneously listing the score as ‘4-3’ after Miami’s ‘goal’) and the RedHawks get an extra point in the league standings which has no impact on the infinitely more important NCAA record. Got that?
While uptown briefly last night multiple people saw our Miami hockey gear and asked what the RedHawks did. There was no way to explain this without confusing people. Hockey is already a tough enough game to pick up for the casual fan. The well-intentioned NCHC has made it even tougher.
In a perfect world, the NCAA would adopt the NCHC’s model so that post first-overtime play would have real meaning, but that body has made it clear that it does want games to deviate from 5-on-5 action at any point to decide games.
GRADES
FORWARDS: B. Grades for all positions were tough to give in this game, since overall the team played very well but the result was a tie. Pretty much everything that needed to be said about this group was mentioned above.
DEFENSEMEN: B. Caito had a sweet goal and almost set up another, except Roslovic fanned on a cross-crease pass. Dornbrock really took a step forward, and Belpedio looked like Version 2014-15, which is a major compliment. This corps held UNO to 25 shots and recorded a goal of its own. Good effort by this group.
GOALTENDING: C-. Ryan McKay probably should’ve had the third goal, and he didn’t face a ton of difficult shots, other than the two that went in prior.
LINEUP CHANGES: LaValle is out with a suspected upper-body injury, and it’s unclear how long he’ll be out. Junior Devin Loe took his place in this game. Colin Sullivan was once again the odd man out on defense, sitting for the fourth time in five games.
Analysis: Many positives in WMU sweep
OXFORD, Ohio – Miami’s first NCHC series of the season did not go well, and the results reflected that – two losses at St. Cloud with one goal for, six against.
The RedHawks’ follow-up series, its first conference games at Cady Arena, were a marked improvement, with both ending in 2-1 wins over Western Michigan, including a victory in the second game on Saturday.
From a statistical perspective, Miami went from tied for last in the league to basically the middle of the pack. Even through MU is in a six-way tie for first, Denver, North Dakota and St. Cloud State have only played two league games and are 2-0.
Most importantly, from a getting-ready-for-bigger-challenges-ahead vantage point, even more good came from these games.
Defensively, Miami gave Western Michigan (4-4-1) almost nothing to shoot at all weekend, and the few times it did, Ryan McKay stopped almost everything he saw.
Offensively, the RedHawks were able to possess the puck in the offensive zone for long periods of time and get numerous looks at the net, even against a team that is outstanding at preventing teams from finding shooting lanes.
And the Broncos are a physical, play-over-the-line at times group, and with one early exception, Miami was able to avoid dumb retaliatory penalties.
Lots of positive.
And Western Michigan is well coached by Andy Murray, who spent 10 years as a head coach in the NHL, and this team is much better than in 2014-15. But the RedHawks were still able to escape with a couple of close wins and were able to close out games both nights, which has been an issue at times in recent years.
Now Miami faces an even tougher test than St. Cloud State – a pair of games vs. North Dakota in Grand Forks. At least the RedHawks have momentum heading into next weekend.
A couple of other thoughts:
Miami’s Anthony Louis scored his first goal of the season on Saturday (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
– Getting goals from Alex Gacek and Anthony Louis could be a huge boost for an offense that is struggling to get scoring from anyone. Gacek is playing the best hockey of his career, and Louis tends to start slowly and pile up the points when he gets going. It was Gacek’s second goals of the season, and the first (!!) for Louis.
– In the final minute, there was a faceoff at center ice, and right before the puck dropped Sean Kuraly skated back and formed an impromptu huddle with Miami’s other four skaters. It was immediately broken up by the officials but may have been a first in hockey. Hey, we are well into football season.
– Freshmen Ryan Siroky and Kiefer Sherwood haven’t been flashy, but the linemates seem to be getting better every game. Twice Siroky won offensive zone faceoffs straight back to Sherwood for a shot just inside the blue line. They both work incredibly hard on the ice, and it’s going to be fun watching them develop the next 3½ years.
– McKay moved into solo control of eighth place all-time on Miami’s wins list with 35. He is one away from creating a three-way tie with Mark Michaud and teammate Jay Williams.
– With a 2-for-2 night on the penalty kill, the RedHawks are now 34 of 35 for the season (97.1 percent) in that area. They have not allowed a power play goal in eight games.
GRADES
FORWARDS: C+. They controlled the action for a good portion of the game, but this corps still isn’t scoring as much as it should. While the defensemen and McKay get the majority of credit for keeping the puck out of Miami’s net, this group helps in that area as well. Gacek, Kevin Morris, Justin Greenberg, Josh Melnick have done a great job of shutting down opposing offenses and are also a key reason for the PK percentage north of 97 percent. Other than Jack Roslovic and Melnick, that scoring thing is still an issue overall for this team, though.
DEFENSEMEN: A. WMU finished with 20 shots on goal, and not too many were quality. Scott Dornbrock tried to clear a puck that hit a Broncos skate, and Western Michigan went in to score its only goal. WMU had an outstanding tip that McKay had to stop as well, and those were two of the only great scoring chances the team had. No one has been really flashy among this group but as a unit they are really tough to play against.
GOALTENDING: A. The only goal was on a very good shot. McKay made an outstanding save on the aforementioned redirect and was generally really solid overall. He stopped 19 of 20 shots and is having an excellent start to his senior season.
LINEUP CHANGES: None. Coach Enrico Blasi went with the same 19 as Friday. Normally he changes personnel pretty regularly at this point of the season and settles into a regular lineup in January or February, but he seems to feel comfortable with this group. Miami only has three extra skaters, and it was the second straight game as a scratch for defenseman Colin Sullivan, the third in a row for Devin Loe and No. 6 for No. 6, Michael Mooney.
Analysis: Win over OSU a morale booster
COLUMBUS, Ohio – Granted it wasn’t against a top-10 team, but getting into the win column has to be a huge moral victory for Miami, especially on a late game winner.
The RedHawks won their road opener at Ohio State, 3-2 at Value City Arena on Friday on a rebound goal by Columbus native Jack Roslovic with 1:33 left.
Miami has a plethora of new forwards this season, and many are in the starting lineup because of their abilities, and also with three extra skaters on the roster including one blueliner, it was obvious most or all of them were going to get the opportunity to play.
Seeing four of them into the points column in this game (Roslovic, Josh Melnick, Kiefer Sherwood, Ryan Siroky) had to be a mental boost for all of them, and getting that first win does everyone good.
The offense was a concern heading into this season, with so many ultra-talented players from 2014-15 departing. But this team has scored eight goals in three games, which is neither bad nor good, and better things are ahead for this team.
One can see the passes that just miss, the chemistry that is still developing, the shots that aren’t quite perfect enough to hit the net. And let’s face it, the Ohio State ice does not exactly rival Edmonton.
We’ll say it again: The defense will be fine. Heck, Colin Sullivan was scratched in this game and he scored a beautiful goal last Friday and made very few mistakes last weekend.
The goaltending? Two fourth-year starters there. Can’t get more experienced there in college.
With the 2015-16 team, the question is always been about scoring enough goals. Three games into the season, Miami is already scoring at an OK clip, and the offense should only improve.
Other thoughts:
– Can’t say enough about how much better senior Alex Gacek has been this season. He kills penalties, he passes, he hits people – which almost defies physics at his size – he defends, he’s doing pretty much everything. Gacek finished strong in 2014-15 and it was hoped that would carry over to this season, but he has exceeded those expectations.
– Also impressed with the step up taken by senior Kevin Morris. He’s been seemingly everywhere so far this season.
– On defense, senior Chris Joyaux seems to have taken a big step forward as well. He was scratched for the season opener last week but has really earned a spot in the lineup with his play since.
– Senior Taylor Richart has been shooting and generally getting involved in the offense a lot more, which is a good thing. He had a shot redirected into the net last week, and he was firing from the blue line again on Saturday and pinched into the play several times. He’s such a smart player that he can be trusted to pick his spots while jumping in without getting caught.
– How about that Crash Cousins line? Andrew Schmit scored the first goal, and the whole line of him, Conor Lemirande and Ryan Siroky played well together. On a team that really only has two scoring lines at present, it was great to see this trio step up.
– Let the controversy begin: Josh Melnick is the best overall forward on the team right now. He’s an absolute pest on the PK (and how much confidence does Coach Enrico Blasi have in him to put a freshman right into the mix on the top PK unit?), he passes incredibly well, he goes into corners and win battles, he scores, he defends very well and steals pucks. Three games in, this kid is the biggest story on the team, especially since everyone knew Roslovic was going to be unreal. Roslovic hasn’t disappointed, Melnick has just been that good. And oh yeah, that winning goal? Melnick made that happen with a picture-perfect centering feed to Morris from along the boards.
Miami forward Josh Melnick (photo by Cathy Lachmann).
– The penalty killing has been excellent. Miami allowed just two shots on three man advantages and is now 12 of 13 (92.3 percent) early in the season. Again, defense, goaltending, not a surprise this is a strength for the RedHawks. Add in a rejuvenated Gacek and Morris, plus Melnick up top and this team could stay above 90 percent this season. The power play on the other hand…but that will get better. Let’s hope.
– Kudos to Miami fans and event organizers who helped get Red and White fans in the seats for this game. RedHawks fans easily outnumbered Ohio State fans in the Buckeyes’ own rink and made a lot of noise. It’s possible there were more Miami fans at this game than at either for opening weekend at Cady.
GRADES
FORWARDS: B. Miami missed some shots it should’ve buried early but got the big one from Roslovic when it needed it. In addition to the others mentioned above, Anthony Louis was more involved all around although he didn’t get on the scoresheet. Sherwood was OK in the opener, scratched for Game 2 and much more of a factor in this game. Overall there was a lot to like from this group, but the RedHawks’ opponent was nowhere near Providence level.
DEFENSEMEN: C. Belpedio fell into the boards with the puck, which directly resulted in the first goal against. On the second one, it looked like freshman Grant Hutton lost Anthony Greco as he skated to the net, resulting in the one-timer. Sophomore Scott Dornbrock, Joyaux and Belpedio all took penalties, and for the latter, that’s four minors in three games. Dornbrock struggled early but got better.
GOALTENDING: A-. McKay stopped 25 of 27 shots (.926) but after Belpedio slipped on the first goal, McKay was left out of position (he understandably couldn’t have anticipated Belpedio losing the puck there), and the second one was a point-blank one-time run he had no chance on. McKay didn’t face many other tough chances until the six minute of the third period, when Miami took a shift off and McKay had to make three great saves. He’s been very solid so far this season.
LINEUP CHANGES: Sherwood was dressed in place of senior Michael Mooney, and Dornbrock played in place of Sullivan. One could envision Blasi going with the same 12 forwards tonight, and which defenseman will sit is anyone’s guess, but Sullivan certainly should not be scratched every night. McKay started for the second straight game, which was interesting because Jay Williams was in net for the opener, so it’s unclear what Blasi will do for the finale. Knowing Blasi he won’t let Williams rot on the bench over one game, especially since numerous goals scored in that tilt weren’t his fault.
Analysis: Yeah, it was bad, but it was 1 game
OXFORD, Ohio – Miami has built a reputation for being one of the toughest teams to score on in college hockey.
Providence appears to be the RedHawks’ defensive kryponite.
The Friars beat Miami, 7-3 at Cady Arena on Friday, giving them 14 goals in two games vs. Miami, which likely can’t wait to play anyone else after losing to PC in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to end its 2014-15 season.
With the lopsided score, it’s easy to say the defense and goaltending let the RedHawks down, and oh by the way, that’s supposed to be the team’s strength heading into this season, and while that isn’t completely untrue, as much credit belongs to Providence in this game.
The Friars were seemingly able to pick the corner of the net at will, and when they had opportunities, they did not miss.
Maybe it’s just because of the optimism of opening night, but this game seemed more like a team that is better right now played a nearly perfect game than Miami laid an egg on home ice to start 2015-16.
The first and third goals the Friars scored were perfect shots in the corner of the net. The second was on a penalty shot that was awarded even though it didn’t look like PC’s skater had a clear step breakaway.
The RedHawks got back to within one, but Providence put up four more in a row, as Miami sometimes has a tendency of not being able to stop the bleeding in games like this.
Overall this still looks like a good MU team. One loss doesn’t change that, even though it was lopsided, and of course it’s magnified because it was the season opener.
A few other thoughts on the game, trying to stay in line with the insert optimism theme:
– OK, one negative that needs to make it into prose is that Captain Kuraly didn’t play particularly well in this game. Sean looked like he may have been banged up or fighting an illness, as he appeared out of breath at times and hunched over. Defenses will pay much more attention to him this season with Czarnik-Barber-Coleman gone, and the 19-goal scorer from 2014-15 will need to step up if he hopes to match that goal total this season.
– Obviously Jack Roslovic, a first-round draft pick, was studly. He scored the first goal of the season, whipping it jai alai style into the net off a power play centering feed. Clearly Roslovic is going to be an offensive beast this season.
Miami’s Jack Roslovic.
– There’s a ton to like about Josh Melnick, who may have been better than Roslovic in this game. Melnick set up the Roslovic goal, scored one of his own and made a couple of great plays on the penalty kill. It speaks volumes about how much confidence Coach Enrico Blasi has in him that he’s on the first power play and first PK unit. From a purely Miami hockey fan perspective, Melnick not being drafted means he will likely spend four years in Oxford, and that will be fun.
– None of the other freshmen forwards stood out, bad or good. That’s OK. It was their first game. The chemistry will come. None looked lost on the ice. Roslovic and Melnick will obviously make up some of the void left by the departing forwards, and in theory the veteran defense and goaltending should make these players’ transitions easier, as the coaches can concentrate on helping develop them, and the team shouldn’t need to score as much to win. Friday didn’t exactly advance that theory, though.
It a tough way to start the season, but it was only one game. Time to move on. Some good things happened Friday, and it will get better.
GRADES
FORWARDS: B. It was a pretty good night for this group. Melnick was awesome, Roslovic is going to be excellent, and senior Alex Gacek and junior Devin Loe also played really well. The latter two are what Miami needs: Veteran players who weren’t studs to step up. Gacek played his best hockey the second half of last year, and Loe has looked very good at times when given the opportunity, and with a short stash of reserves, he should have a chance to earn plenty of ice time this season.
DEFENSE: C-. As usual, this is the hardest area to grade, and with the lamp getting lit seven times, it makes it tougher to grade higher. Freshman Grant Hutton did some really good things and looks like he has a lot of potential, but he also let a player cut in for the breakaway on which he was called for the penalty shot that resulted in the second PC goal. He allowed another player to cut in for an odd-man chance later in the game. But he looks big, strong, smart and agile for his size, and he should turn into a solid defenseman. Colin Sullivan’s goal was a thing of beauty, which gets the grade above the ‘D’ range.
GOALTENDING: D. Like we said, Goals 1 and 3 for PC were just wired. The second goal was a penalty shot, and except for a big rebounds, Providence had very good looks on the rest and did not miss. Not a fan of ever allowed a goalie to give up seven, whether it’s his fault or not, so it would’ve been nice to see him lifted earlier to his confidence doesn’t take a bigger hit. Ryan McKay stopped one shot in relief and will almost certainly start the series finale.
LINEUP: The odd men out for this game were forwards Andrew Schmit and Justin Greenberg, and defenseman Chris Joyaux. Greenberg is banged up, and we’ll see how the defense is handled moving forward. Joyaux played well at the end of 2014-15, so we’ll see how much patience Blasi is going to have with Hutton. Knowing Blasi, he’ll probably rotate which blueliner sits, with Louie Belpedio, Matthew Caito and Taylor Richart likely being the three with job security at this point.
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